Every year, fall rolls into winter and conditions start their inevitable change. But this year there is more of this story to be told. There is no doubt change is nigh, as we just had another big blow and the air temp this morning on the way to the gym was brisk 43 degrees. The water structure is ripped apart and the offshore fish are long gone...or are they???

The unknown quantity in all of this are the El Nino conditions forecast to develop through the winter/spring 2010 time frame. Throughout the season in 2009 I saw some indications but in reality, less than was expected. But recently they’ve upped the estimated strength and a quick scan of all the scientific data points to only one reasonable conclusion…we may have some serious good fun next season!!!

El Nino swings a double-edged sword in the Southern California bight. For those of us that love offshore fishing it can be a huge blessing. Marlin, bigeye and yellowfin tuna, dorado and yellowtail all flood into our area following the warm water edges. But the same water that brings so many dimensions to waters offshore can wreak havoc on our inshore habitat.

The kelp gets weakened and ripped loose from the holdfasts so all the creatures depending on the kelp forests for protection are left to fend for themselves. The squid situation will range from tough to virtually non-existent so it behooves you to make some serious deposits to your frozen squid bank as soon as possible. And when the red crabs show up, it can get really tough to catch a calico bass as they are stuffed with the little lobster-like crustaceans

The seabass fishing during winter El Nino conditions can go both ways, some years are good and on others they pull a no-show. For 2010, I’m banking on a great season again as we just have so much around. The yellowtail fishing is another story altogether. The fish often holdover and the fishing at the outer islands can be fantastic. We get some of our best fishing for winter yellows on the surface and yo-yo iron during those years when the water stays near 60 degrees, and signs point toward exactly that scenario.

So today I’m looking deep into my crystal ball to get the answer to the question about the potential for an El Nino season and it was acting kinda cranky. Even by asking real nice the best answer I could get was “Just wait and see…(but be ready)!I think I’ll do just that!!!

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